Do not turn a global tourism change into an automatic hotel pricing decision. First establish how many room nights each source market contributes during the same stay period. Then calculate how an assumed contraction in one market changes your total. For an independent hotel, boutique property or apartment operator, the immediate decision is which market deserves closer monitoring before opening a general discount. This worksheet separates a large share from a forecast of high risk and gives you a starting point to populate with your own aggregated booking figures.
Place the news in its actual period
UN Tourism’s Barometer page dated 17 September 2026 reports modest global growth in international arrivals during the first half of the year. The September bulletin, version dated 8 October, shows divergent regional results. These are January–June observations, not measurements of October bookings. Both sources were checked on 22 October 2026 and come from the same institution, rather than two independent studies.
Use that context to ask whether your booking mix depends heavily on one market. Arrivals into a destination and the source markets booking your property are different measures. The direction of arrivals into a region does not by itself reveal whether residents of that region will travel to you. Do not substitute a regional bulletin figure for the assumed contraction below. All scenario rates are fictional, rather than country forecasts or news-based risk scores.
Build a comparable baseline
Choose one stay period and one unit. Keep completed room nights separate from confirmed future room nights. Do not mix bookings, guests and room nights in a share calculation. Record the extraction date and whether cancelled records are excluded. Two extracts taken on different dates may have different booking lead times; resolve that difference before describing it as a change in demand.
Define source markets consistently using country information already collected appropriately. Do not infer country from names, language or booking channel. Keep unknown markets in a separate group. Bookings from one country remain in the same source group even when they use different channels. Aggregated totals are sufficient; this exercise does not require sharing guest identities.
Recalculate the fictional worksheet
Assume a property has 1,000 room nights in the selected period: market A contributes 500, B contributes 300 and other markets 200. Their shares are 50%, 30% and 20%, totalling 100%. Start by assuming a 20% contraction in A and no change elsewhere. This is a sensitivity test, not a probability or expected loss.
Worksheet: baseline 1,000 room nights. A: 500 × 20% = 100 lost. B: 300 × 0% = 0. Other: 200 × 0% = 0. New total: 1,000 − 100 = 900. Overall impact: 100 ÷ 1,000 = 10%. The short formula is market share × assumed contraction = proportional impact on total room nights; 50% × 20% = 10%.
For the second test, hold A constant and reduce only B by 20%. The loss is 60 room nights, leaving 940, an overall impact of 6%. Apply both shocks together and the loss is 160, leaving 840, a 16% impact. There is no replacement demand, price change or cancellation response in these assumptions. A percentage loss of room nights is not automatically the same percentage loss of revenue.
Turn the result into a monitoring decision
Record period, extraction date, market definition, baseline, share, assumed contraction, calculated loss, owner and next review date. As a fictional management rule, review scenarios with an overall impact above 8% weekly. This is not a universal threshold: A’s 10% exceeds it and B’s 6% does not. Set the real threshold according to the empty capacity your business can tolerate.
Reviewing A does not mean closing it or transferring budget to B. Check net room-night movement, cancellations and the unknown-market share for comparable booking lead times. Then define a small communication or distribution trial, with its cost and stop condition. Where data is inadequate, the first output is a consistent extract and review date, rather than a discount.
Keep the decision within its limits
The card ranks capacity sensitivity, not profitability. Differences in rates, stay length, service costs and selling costs need separate contribution analysis. A large market share may also reflect successful specialisation. Check that shares sum correctly and bookings are not counted twice. Read the worksheet alongside booking-window and net-change analysis so the tourism bulletin produces a focused monitoring question for your property.